Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 34
Filter
1.
J Epidemiol Glob Health ; 13(2): 239-247, 2023 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2279078

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: On 11 March 2020, COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The first case was identified in Rwanda on 24 March 2020. Three waves of COVID-19 outbreak have been observed since the identification of the first case in Rwanda. During the COVID-19 epidemic, the country of Rwanda has implemented many Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) that appear to be effective. However, a study was needed to investigate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions applied in Rwanda to guide ongoing and future responses to epidemics of this emerging disease across the World. METHODS: A quantitative observational study was conducted by conducting analysis of COVID-19 cases reported daily in Rwanda from 24 March 2020 to 21 November 2021. Data used were obtained from the official Twitter account of Ministry Health and the website of Rwanda Biomedical Center. Frequencies of COVID-19 cases and incidence rates were calculated, and to determine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on changes in COVID-19 cases an interrupted time series analysis was used. RESULTS: Rwanda has experienced three waves of COVID-19 outbreak from March 2020 to November 2021. The major NPIs applied in Rwanda included lockdowns, movement restriction among districts and Kigali City, and curfews. Of 100,217 COVID-19 confirmed cases as of 21 November 2021, the majority were female 51,671 (52%) and 25,713 (26%) were in the age group of 30-39, and 1866 (1%) were imported cases. The case fatality rate was high among men (n = 724/48,546; 1.5%), age > 80 (n = 309/1866; 17%) and local cases (n = 1340/98,846; 1.4%). The interrupted time series analysis revealed that during the first wave NPIs decreased the number of COVID-19 cases by 64 cases per week. NPIs applied in the second wave decreased COVID-19 cases by 103 per week after implementation, while in the third wave after NPIs implementation, a significant decrease of 459 cases per week was observed. CONCLUSION: The early implementation of lockdown, restriction of movements and putting in place curfews may reduce the transmission of COVID-19 across the country. The NPIs implemented in Rwanda appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, setting up the NPIs early is important to prevent further spread of the virus.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Female , Male , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control , Rwanda/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Pandemics/prevention & control
3.
Glob Health Sci Pract ; 10(5)2022 10 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2100394

ABSTRACT

In Rwanda, provider reimbursements for oxygen are based on the duration of patient consumption at a fixed hourly tariff rate. This study sought to assess whether the current insurance tariff in Rwanda was adequate to cover the costs of oxygen used in oxygen therapy and to explore alternative tariff models.The assessment found that hospitals make a marginal surplus from low volume flow rate patients and incur losses from patients who require high volume flow rates. In high volume nonspecialized hospitals with a large pool of patients consuming medical oxygen, low flow rate usage patients (e.g., neonates) tend to subsidize high flow usage patients (surgery), if the number of patients consuming low flow oxygen is higher than the latter. The study found that the current tariff was sufficient before the exponential surge in demand for high flow usage during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A variable tariff that factors both the duration (hours) and the volume (liters) used during the therapy may require more work but better reflects the cost of consumption in each ward. A case-based payment model provides a standard pricing framework based on the patient's diagnosis, intervention, and intensity of treatment.This study highlights the need for a transition from the time-based tariff structure to a case-based or volume-based tariff to incentivize sustainable production and provision (supply) of medical oxygen services at health facilities in Rwanda. Social health insurance reimbursement tariffs for medical oxygen need to reflect both duration and volume of consumption because oxygen therapy varies based on intervention, disease severity, patient age, length of stay, and responsiveness to treatment.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Oxygen , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Rwanda/epidemiology , Pandemics , Hospitals, Public
4.
BMJ Open ; 12(10): e054137, 2022 10 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2064149

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to describe access to food and symptoms of depression among patients with chronic diseases or their caregivers, and assess associated factors during the COVID-19 lockdown in rural Rwanda. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A stratified random sampling technique was used to recruit 220 patients enrolled in the HIV, non-communicable diseases, mental health, paediatric development clinic and oncology programmes in three rural districts of Rwanda. OUTCOME MEASURES: Telephone-based interviews were conducted to collect data on the number of daily meals before and during the COVID-19, and depression was assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. We used logistic regression analysis to investigate factors associated with households reporting a reduction in daily meals and with the survey respondent reporting symptoms of depression. RESULTS: Of the participants, 19.1% reported a reduction in daily number of meals for either adults or children in their households during lockdown and 24.6% had depression. Reporting a reduction in daily meals was associated with the district of residence and estimated household's monthly income. Self-reported depression was significantly associated with negative experiences during lockdown, including reporting feeling depressed or fear (AOR 4.82; 95% CI 2.08 to 11.21), loneliness (AOR 4.33; 95% CI 1.32 to 14.13), reduction in daily meals (AOR 4.15; 95% CI 1.56 to 11.00) and lack of access to healthcare (OR 3.29; 95% CI 1.32 to 8.23). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that significant reduction in access to food affected rural Rwandans with chronic diseases during COVID-19 lockdown, and the lockdown effect varied by household's pre-pandemic level of vulnerability to food insecurity. Reduction in household meals, as well as other self-reported effects of the lockdown, were associated with worse psychological status of survey respondents. Economic and food support should be considered by governments and non-governmental organisations to protect those most vulnerable including patients with chronic diseases against the effects of pandemics and their associated containment measures.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Child , Chronic Disease , Communicable Disease Control , Cross-Sectional Studies , Depression/epidemiology , Food Insecurity , Food Supply , Humans , Rwanda/epidemiology
5.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak ; 22(1): 214, 2022 08 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1993356

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda, a vast amount of SARS-COV-2/COVID-19-related data have been collected including COVID-19 testing and hospital routine care data. Unfortunately, those data are fragmented in silos with different data structures or formats and cannot be used to improve understanding of the disease, monitor its progress, and generate evidence to guide prevention measures. The objective of this project is to leverage the artificial intelligence (AI) and data science techniques in harmonizing datasets to support Rwandan government needs in monitoring and predicting the COVID-19 burden, including the hospital admissions and overall infection rates. METHODS: The project will gather the existing data including hospital electronic health records (EHRs), the COVID-19 testing data and will link with longitudinal data from community surveys. The open-source tools from Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) will be used to harmonize hospital EHRs through the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM). The project will also leverage other OHDSI tools for data analytics and network integration, as well as R Studio and Python. The network will include up to 15 health facilities in Rwanda, whose EHR data will be harmonized to OMOP CDM. EXPECTED RESULTS: This study will yield a technical infrastructure where the 15 participating hospitals and health centres will have EHR data in OMOP CDM format on a local Mac Mini ("data node"), together with a set of OHDSI open-source tools. A central server, or portal, will contain a data catalogue of participating sites, as well as the OHDSI tools that are used to define and manage distributed studies. The central server will also integrate the information from the national Covid-19 registry, as well as the results of the community surveys. The ultimate project outcome is the dynamic prediction modelling for COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda. DISCUSSION: The project is the first on the African continent leveraging AI and implementation of an OMOP CDM based federated data network for data harmonization. Such infrastructure is scalable for other pandemics monitoring, outcomes predictions, and tailored response planning.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Artificial Intelligence , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing , Data Science , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Rwanda/epidemiology
6.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 500, 2022 May 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1892180

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There remain gaps in quantifying mortality risk among individuals co-infected with chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan African contexts. Among a cohort of HIV-positive individuals in Rwanda, we estimate the difference in time-to mortality between HBV-positive (HIV/HBV co-infected) and HBV-negative (HIV mono-infected) individuals. METHODS: Using a dataset of HIV-infected adults screened for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) from January to June 2016 in Rwanda, we performed time-to-event analysis from the date of HBsAg results until death or end of study (31 December 2019). We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate probability of survival over time and Cox proportional hazard models to adjust for other factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: Of 21,105 available entries, 18,459 (87.5%) met the inclusion criteria. Mean age was 42.3 years (SD = 11.4) and 394 (2.1%) died during follow-up (mortality rate = 45.7 per 100,000 person-months, 95% confidence interval (CI) 41.4-50.4) Mortality rate ratio for co-infection was 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.6, however, Cox regression analysis did not show any association with mortality between compared groups. The adjusted analysis of covariates stratified by co-infection status showed that males, residing outside of the capital Kigali, drinking alcohol, WHO-HIV-clinical stage 3 and 4 were associated with increased mortality in this HIV cohort. CONCLUSIONS: HBV infection does not significantly influence mortality among HIV-infected individuals in Rwanda. The current cohort is likely to have survived a period of high-risk exposure to HBV and HIV mortality and limited health care until their diagnosis.


Subject(s)
Coinfection , HIV Infections , Hepatitis B, Chronic , Adult , Coinfection/complications , HIV Infections/complications , Hepatitis B Surface Antigens , Hepatitis B virus , Hepatitis B, Chronic/complications , Humans , Male , Rwanda/epidemiology
7.
BMJ Open ; 12(4): e055119, 2022 04 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1832447

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, community health workers (CHWs) served as front-line workers in the COVID-19 response while maintaining community health services. We aimed to understand challenges faced by Rwanda's CHWs during a nationwide COVID-19 lockdown that occurred between March and May 2020 by assessing the availability of trainings, supplies and supervision while exploring perceived needs and challenges. DESIGN AND SETTING: This study was a mixed-method study conducted in three Rwandan districts: Burera, Kirehe and Kayonza. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Using data collected via telephone, we assessed the availability of trainings, supplies and supervision during the first national lockdown, while exploring perceived needs and challenges of CHWs who were engaged in COVID-19 response, in addition to their existing duties of delivering health services in the community. RESULTS: Among the 292 quantitative survey participants, CHWs were responsible for a median of 55 households (IQR: 42-79) and visited a median of 30 households (IQR: 11-52) in the month prior to the survey (July 2020). In the previous 12 months, only 164 (56.2%) CHWs reported being trained on any health topic. Gaps in supply availability, particularly for commodities, existed at the start of the lockdown and worsened over the course of the lockdown. Supervision during the lockdown was low, with nearly 10% of CHWs never receiving supervision and only 24% receiving at least three supervision visits during the 3-month lockdown. In qualitative interviews, CHWs additionally described increases in workload, lack of personal protective equipment and COVID-specific training, fear of COVID-19, and difficult working conditions. CONCLUSION: Many challenges faced by CHWs during the lockdown predated COVID-19 and persisted or were exacerbated during the pandemic. To promote the resilience of Rwanda's CHW system, we recommend increased access to PPE; investment in training, supervision and supply chain management; and financial compensation for CHWs.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Community Health Workers , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Community Health Services , Community Health Workers/education , Delivery of Health Care , Humans , Pandemics , Qualitative Research , Rwanda/epidemiology
9.
Pan Afr Med J ; 40: 252, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1706059

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: data on the impact of COVID-19 on people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) in less resourced countries are limited. Our study was undertaken in Kigali, Rwanda, and aimed to investigate and describe the problems and challenges experienced by young adults with T1D resulting from the early phase of the pandemic. The study further aimed to understand the mechanisms being used to solve problems and overcome challenges, and perceived support needs. METHODS: this was a cross-sectional study, with anonymous data (n=52) collected through use of questionnaire. Participants were registered, and attending or receiving diabetes-related healthcare through the Rwanda Diabetes Association clinic. RESULTS: mean+standard deviation age and T1D duration were 24.0±2.1 and 7.4±3.4 years respectively, with sex distribution unequal (male n=22, 42.3%). Of 43 participants, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly affect participants´ access to diabetes management supplies and care. Eight (18.6%) participants experienced difficulties accessing blood glucose testing strips, 13 (30.2%) insulin, and three (7.0%) syringes and pen devices. Thirty-two (74.4%) experienced difficulty in attending standard diabetes healthcare reviews at the clinic setting. Some participants experienced hardship, through a decrease in personal or family income (n=42, 80.8%) and challenges in accessing food (n=34, 65.4%), with thirty (57.7%) participants having decreased meal frequency (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: our research illustrates the indirect effects of measures undertaken to curb the spread of COVID-19 on young adults with T1D in Rwanda. Study findings may help inform actions to mitigate negative impacts on T1D care in other crises.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 , Cross-Sectional Studies , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/epidemiology , Humans , Infant , Male , Pandemics , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
10.
Malar J ; 21(1): 48, 2022 Feb 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1686016

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Rwanda has achieved impressive reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality over the past two decades. However, the disruption of essential services due to the current Covid-19 pandemic can lead to a reversal of these gains in malaria control unless targeted, evidence-based interventions are implemented to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. The extent to which malaria services have been disrupted has not been fully characterized. This study was conducted to assess the impact of Covid-19 on malaria services in Rwanda. METHODS: A mixed-methods study was conducted in three purposively selected districts in Rwanda. The quantitative data included malaria aggregated data reported at the health facility level and the community level. The data included the number of malaria tests, uncomplicated malaria cases, severe malaria cases, and malaria deaths. The qualitative data were collected using focus group discussions with community members and community health workers, as well as in-depth interviews with health care providers and staff working in the malaria programme. Interrupted time series analysis was conducted to compare changes in malaria presentations between the pre-Covid-19 period (January 2019 to February 2020) and Covid-19 period (from March 2020 to November 2020). The constant comparative method was used in qualitative thematic analysis. RESULTS: Compared to the pre-Covid-19 period, there was a monthly reduction in patients tested in health facilities of 4.32 per 1000 population and a monthly increase in patients tested in the community of 2.38 per 1000 population during the Covid-19 period. There was no change in the overall presentation rate for uncomplicated malaria. The was a monthly reduction in the proportion of severe malaria of 5.47 per 100,000 malaria cases. Additionally, although healthcare providers continued to provide malaria services, they were fearful that this would expose them and their families to Covid-19. Covid-19 mitigation measures limited the availability of transportation options for the community to seek care in health facilities and delayed the implementation of some key malaria interventions. The focus on Covid-19-related communication also reduced the amount of health information for other diseases provided to community members. CONCLUSION: The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in patients increasingly seeking care in the community and poses challenges to maintaining delivery of malaria services in Rwanda. Interventions to mitigate these challenges should focus on strengthening programming for the community and home-based care models and integrating malaria messages into Covid-19-related communication. Additionally, implementation of the interrupted interventions should be timed and overlap with the malaria transmission season to mitigate Covid-19 consequences on malaria.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Malaria , Community Health Workers , Humans , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Pandemics , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
11.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(3)2022 Jan 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1625590

ABSTRACT

The management of COVID-19 in Rwanda has been dynamic, and the use of COVID-19 therapeutics has gradually been updated based on scientific discoveries. The treatment for COVID-19 remained patient-centered and entirely state-sponsored during the first and second waves. From the time of identification of the index case in March 2020 up to August 2021, three versions of the clinical management guidelines were developed, with the aim of ensuring that the COVID-19 patients treated in Rwanda were receiving care based on the most recent therapeutic discoveries. As the case load increased and imposed imminent heavy burdens on the healthcare system, a smooth transition was made to enable that the asymptomatic and mild COVID-19 cases could continue to be closely observed and managed while they remained in their homes. The care provided to patients requiring facility-based interventions mainly focused on the provision of anti-inflammatory drugs, anticoagulation, broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy, management of hyperglycemia and the provision of therapeutics with a direct antiviral effect such as favipiravir and neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. The time to viral clearance was observed to be shortest among eligible patients treated with neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (bamlanivimab). Moving forward, as we strive to continue detecting COVID-19 cases as early as possible, and promptly initiate supportive interventions, the use of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies constitutes an attractive and cost-effective therapeutic approach. If this approach is used strategically along with other measures in place (i.e., COVID-19 vaccine roll out, etc.), it will enable us to bring this global battle against the COVID-19 pandemic under full control and with a low case fatality rate.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Antibodies, Neutralizing/therapeutic use , COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Humans , Pandemics , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Bull World Health Organ ; 99(11): 783-794D, 2021 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1551419

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To investigate vaccine hesitancy leading to underimmunization and a measles outbreak in Rwanda and to develop a conceptual, community-level model of behavioural factors. METHODS: Local immunization systems in two Rwandan communities (one recently experienced a measles outbreak) were explored using systems thinking, human-centred design and behavioural frameworks. Data were collected between 2018 and 2020 from: discussions with 11 vaccination service providers (i.e. hospital and health centre staff); interviews with 161 children's caregivers at health centres; and nine validation interviews with health centre staff. Factors influencing vaccine hesitancy were categorized using the 3Cs framework: confidence, complacency and convenience. A conceptual model of vaccine hesitancy mechanisms with feedback loops was developed. FINDINGS: A comparison of service providers' and caregivers' perspectives in both rural and peri-urban settings showed that similar factors strengthened vaccine uptake: (i) high trust in vaccines and service providers based on personal relationships with health centre staff; (ii) the connecting role of community health workers; and (iii) a strong sense of community. Factors identified as increasing vaccine hesitancy (e.g. service accessibility and inadequate follow-up) differed between service providers and caregivers and between settings. The conceptual model could be used to explain drivers of the recent measles outbreak and to guide interventions designed to increase vaccine uptake. CONCLUSION: The application of behavioural frameworks and systems thinking revealed vaccine hesitancy mechanisms in Rwandan communities that demonstrate the interrelationship between immunization services and caregivers' vaccination behaviour. Confidence-building social structures and context-dependent challenges that affect vaccine uptake were also identified.


Subject(s)
Patient Acceptance of Health Care , Vaccines , Child , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Humans , Rwanda/epidemiology , Systems Analysis , Vaccination
13.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 5705, 2021 09 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1442779

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 transmission rates are often linked to locally circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Here we describe 203 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences analyzed from strains circulating in Rwanda from May 2020 to February 2021. In particular, we report a shift in variant distribution towards the emerging sub-lineage A.23.1 that is currently dominating. Furthermore, we report the detection of the first Rwandan cases of the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants of concern among incoming travelers tested at Kigali International Airport. To assess the importance of viral introductions from neighboring countries and local transmission, we exploit available individual travel history metadata to inform spatio-temporal phylogeographic inference, enabling us to take into account infections from unsampled locations. We uncover an important role of neighboring countries in seeding introductions into Rwanda, including those from which no genomic sequences were available. Our results highlight the importance of systematic genomic surveillance and regional collaborations for a durable response towards combating COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/virology , Genome, Viral/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Travel-Related Illness , Adult , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Epidemiological Monitoring , Female , Humans , Male , Phylogeny , Phylogeography , RNA, Viral/genetics , RNA, Viral/isolation & purification , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Whole Genome Sequencing
14.
MEDICC Rev ; 23(3-4): 15-20, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1399827

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact worldwide with regions experiencing varying degrees of severity. African countries have mounted different response strategies eliciting varied outcomes. Here, we compare these response strategies in Rwanda, South Africa and Zimbabwe and discuss lessons that could be shared. In particular, Rwanda has a robust and coordinated national health system that has effectively contained the epidemic. South Africa has considerable testing capacity, which has been used productively in a national response largely funded by local resources but affected negatively by corruption. Zimbabwe has an effective point-of-entry approach that utilizes an innovative strategic information system. All three countries would benefit having routine meetings to share experiences and lessons learned during the COVD-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Cuba , Humans , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , South Africa/epidemiology , Zimbabwe/epidemiology
16.
Ann Glob Health ; 87(1): 57, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1305870

ABSTRACT

Globally, 10-20% of children and adolescents experience mental health conditions, but most of them do not receive the appropriate care when it is needed. The COVID-19 deaths and prevention measures, such as the lockdowns, economic downturns, and school closures, have affected many communities physically, mentally, and economically and significantly impacted the already-neglected children and adolescents' mental health. As a result, evidence has shown that many children and adolescents are experiencing psychological effects such as depression and anxiety without adequate support. The consequences of not addressing the mental health conditions in children and adolescents extend through adulthood and restrict them from reaching their full potential. The effects of COVID-19 on children and adolescents' mental health highlight the urgent need for multisectoral home-grown solutions to provide early diagnosis and treatment and educate caregivers on home-based interventions and community outreach initiatives to address children and adolescents' mental health challenges during this pandemic and beyond.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Community Mental Health Services , Early Medical Intervention/organization & administration , Mental Disorders , Quarantine/psychology , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Child , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Community Mental Health Services/methods , Community Mental Health Services/trends , Education, Distance , Global Health , Health Services Needs and Demand , Humans , Intersectoral Collaboration , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Mental Disorders/therapy , Mental Health/trends , Psychosocial Deprivation , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
17.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 14107, 2021 07 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1303788

ABSTRACT

The number of secondary cases, i.e. the number of new infections generated by an infectious individual, is an important parameter for the control of infectious diseases. When individual variation in disease transmission is present, like for COVID-19, the distribution of the number of secondary cases is skewed and often modeled using a negative binomial distribution. However, this may not always be the best distribution to describe the underlying transmission process. We propose the use of three other offspring distributions to quantify heterogeneity in transmission, and we assess the possible bias in estimates of the mean and variance of this distribution when the data generating distribution is different from the one used for inference. We also analyze COVID-19 data from Hong Kong, India, and Rwanda, and quantify the proportion of cases responsible for 80% of transmission, [Formula: see text], while acknowledging the variation arising from the assumed offspring distribution. In a simulation study, we find that variance estimates may be biased when there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity, and that selection of the most accurate distribution from a set of distributions is important. In addition we find that the number of secondary cases for two of the three COVID-19 datasets is better described by a Poisson-lognormal distribution.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Computer Simulation , Hong Kong/epidemiology , Humans , India/epidemiology , Poisson Distribution , Rwanda/epidemiology
18.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 160, 2021 07 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1301851

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: East Africa is home to 170 million people and prone to frequent outbreaks of viral haemorrhagic fevers and various bacterial diseases. A major challenge is that epidemics mostly happen in remote areas, where infrastructure for Biosecurity Level (BSL) 3/4 laboratory capacity is not available. As samples have to be transported from the outbreak area to the National Public Health Laboratories (NPHL) in the capitals or even flown to international reference centres, diagnosis is significantly delayed and epidemics emerge. MAIN TEXT: The East African Community (EAC), an intergovernmental body of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan, received 10 million € funding from the German Development Bank (KfW) to establish BSL3/4 capacity in the region. Between 2017 and 2020, the EAC in collaboration with the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for Tropical Medicine (Germany) and the Partner Countries' Ministries of Health and their respective NPHLs, established a regional network of nine mobile BSL3/4 laboratories. These rapidly deployable laboratories allowed the region to reduce sample turn-around-time (from days to an average of 8h) at the centre of the outbreak and rapidly respond to epidemics. In the present article, the approach for implementing such a regional project is outlined and five major aspects (including recommendations) are described: (i) the overall project coordination activities through the EAC Secretariat and the Partner States, (ii) procurement of equipment, (iii) the established laboratory setup and diagnostic panels, (iv) regional training activities and capacity building of various stakeholders and (v) completed and ongoing field missions. The latter includes an EAC/WHO field simulation exercise that was conducted on the border between Tanzania and Kenya in June 2019, the support in molecular diagnosis during the Tanzanian Dengue outbreak in 2019, the participation in the Ugandan National Ebola response activities in Kisoro district along the Uganda/DRC border in Oct/Nov 2019 and the deployments of the laboratories to assist in SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics throughout the region since early 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The established EAC mobile laboratory network allows accurate and timely diagnosis of BSL3/4 pathogens in all East African countries, important for individual patient management and to effectively contain the spread of epidemic-prone diseases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Community Networks , Dengue/epidemiology , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology , Laboratories , Mobile Health Units , Burundi/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Dengue/prevention & control , Epidemics , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/therapy , Humans , Kenya/epidemiology , Mobile Health Units/economics , Public Health , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , South Sudan/epidemiology , Tanzania/epidemiology , Uganda/epidemiology
19.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(13)2021 06 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1288887

ABSTRACT

We reported the findings of the first Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) four clusters identified in Rwanda. Case-investigations included contact elicitation, testing, and isolation/quarantine of confirmed cases. Socio-demographic and clinical data on cases and contacts were collected. A confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PCR) while a contact was any person who had contact with a SARS-CoV-2 confirmed case within 72 h prior, to 14 days after symptom onset; or 14 days before collection of the laboratory-positive sample for asymptomatic cases. High risk contacts were those who had come into unprotected face-to-face contact or had been in a closed environment with a SARS-CoV-2 case for >15 min. Forty cases were reported from four clusters by 22 April 2020, accounting for 61% of locally transmitted cases within six weeks. Clusters A, B, C and D were associated with two nightclubs, one house party, and different families or households living in the same compound (multi-family dwelling). Thirty-six of the 1035 contacts tested were positive (secondary attack rate: 3.5%). Positivity rates were highest among the high-risk contacts compared to low-risk contacts (10% vs. 2.2%). Index cases in three of the clusters were imported through international travelling. Fifteen of the 40 cases (38%) were asymptomatic while 13/25 (52%) and 8/25 (32%) of symptomatic cases had a cough and fever respectively. Gatherings in closed spaces were the main early drivers of transmission. Systematic case-investigations contact tracing and testing likely contributed to the early containment of SARS-CoV-2 in Rwanda.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Contact Tracing , Humans , Quarantine , Rwanda/epidemiology
20.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 104(4): 1179-1187, 2021 Feb 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1262647

ABSTRACT

Most African countries have recorded relatively lower COVID-19 burdens than Western countries. This has been attributed to early and strong political commitment and robust implementation of public health measures, such as nationwide lockdowns, travel restrictions, face mask wearing, testing, contact tracing, and isolation, along with community education and engagement. Other factors include the younger population age strata and hypothesized but yet-to-be confirmed partially protective cross-immunity from parasitic diseases and/or other circulating coronaviruses. However, the true burden may also be underestimated due to operational and resource issues for COVID-19 case identification and reporting. In this perspective article, we discuss selected best practices and challenges with COVID-19 contact tracing in Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda. Best practices from these country case studies include sustained, multi-platform public communications; leveraging of technology innovations; applied public health expertise; deployment of community health workers; and robust community engagement. Challenges include an overwhelming workload of contact tracing and case detection for healthcare workers, misinformation and stigma, and poorly sustained adherence to isolation and quarantine. Important lessons learned include the need for decentralization of contact tracing to the lowest geographic levels of surveillance, rigorous use of data and technology to improve decision-making, and sustainment of both community sensitization and political commitment. Further research is needed to understand the role and importance of contact tracing in controlling community transmission dynamics in African countries, including among children. Also, implementation science will be critically needed to evaluate innovative, accessible, and cost-effective digital solutions to accommodate the contact tracing workload.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Contact Tracing/methods , Humans , Nigeria/epidemiology , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Rwanda/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , South Africa/epidemiology , Uganda/epidemiology
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL